Is Romney Damaged?
By David Gergen, CNN Senior Political Analyst, 1/20/2012
Charleston, South Carolina (CNN) — The cloak of inevitability that Mitt Romney has been wearing — on again, off again — is suddenly and dramatically off again. Just as he seemed poised to wrap up the GOP nomination in South Carolina, Romney has been hit with a triple dose of bad news:
• Newt Gingrich has been surging among South Carolina voters. His strong debate performance Monday night, coupled with Romney’s clumsy responses on his taxes, allowed Gingrich to move up swiftly. This week’s CNN/Time/ORC International poll showed Gingrich cutting the Romney lead, and three polls Thursday morning have Gingrich modestly ahead in the state.
• Rick Perry, in bowing out Thursday, gave a full-throated endorsement of Gingrich. Perry commanded little support in South Carolina, but his departure 48 hours before voting starts will inject fresh energy into the Gingrich campaign.
• Iowa has now released its final count from its caucuses showing that lo and behold, Rick Santorum has the most votes — only a 34-vote difference but enough to give Santorum fresh bragging rights. (Many will always wonder how the trajectory might have changed had Santorum been declared the victor on caucus night.)
Who could have imagined this a week ago? We now have a race on our hands in South Carolina, and CNN’s debate Thursday night in Charleston — the last forum before voting starts — has become a crucial moment.
South Carolina, of course, is only one primary in a long season, so — even if their candidate were to lose here — the Romney forces remain confident about Florida 10 days later and other races to come. By any measure, they are much better prepared for the long haul than every other campaign, which usually spells ultimate victory. And it remains to be seen what Marianne Gingrich, the speaker’s second wife, will revealthat could damage her ex-husband’s candidacy in her interview Thursday on ABC’s “Nightline.”
Still, one senses yet another shift in the political landscape. It’s not just that in the past eight elections (all the way back to Ronald Reagan in 1980), the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to become the nominee of the Republican Party. A loss here would carry heavy symbolism for Romney.
But the bigger point is that Romney’s strongest calling card with GOP voters — his electability — has become somewhat diminished of late. A little-noticed Pew poll this week found that over the course of the recent campaign (November to now), Romney’s favorability rating among all registered voters has slipped from 38% to 33% and his overall favorable/unfavorable rating is 33%-47%. In the same survey, President Barack Obama has moved to a 5-point lead over Romney in a head-to-head match, 50%-45%.
The Romney team can point out that in the 2008 campaign, all three top competitors — Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain — saw some slippage in their favorability ratings over the course of the primaries. Goes with the territory, they will say. Then, too, other polls this year show Romney in a dead heat with Obama and running ahead in several key swing states.
Still, heading into this campaign cycle, political pros know that the Obama team has yet to unleash the full fury of its attacks against Romney — attacks they know how to do better than anyone else these days. And it is apparent that in the way the national conversation is changing, the Obama folks — with help from liberal friends in the media — are steering the debate away from jobs toward income inequality.
As nominee, Romney will command much higher ground if the election turns on how to create the most jobs than if it becomes a slugfest over fairness. Watching Romney squirm these past days over his tax returns, Democrats are increasingly confident about trend lines. That’s why it is so important for Romney to find better ways to address his taxes and wealth, starting Thursday night.
The bottom line is that Romney still has the lead position in the race for the Republican nomination. The polls also suggest that he will win South Carolina — that just as McCain won South Carolina in 2008 when avid conservatives in 2008 split their vote between Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, so now Romney can successfully play divide and conquer against Gingrich and Santorum.
But the momentum here seems to be shifting, and if Romney is bloodied in South Carolina — where he once had a 20-point lead — we are in for a longer, more unpredictable race. Tune in Thursday night!
Read more at: http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/19/opinion/gergen-romney/index.html
4 Responses to Is Romney Damaged?
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H.M. Brown, you are correct! It is much better that American “A”pay American “B’s” living expenses. After all, this idea that Americans are to earn, instead of being given? How odd!
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HM Brown. Well said. These republiCANTs promising jos is so transparent and idiotic. They’ll create jobs for their BIG OIL/BIG BANK buddies. The United States should be embarrassed to see Donald Tramp in the same picture with Neutered Gingrich. Two headed moron. These guys are hilarious when they run into each other and fall down.
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Frank Wirig says:
Romney’s Weakness
RELIGIOUS BIGOTRY KEEPING ROMNEY FROM SEWING IT UP—READ WHY AND HOW.
It is being said that Romney’s weakness is in carrying the Republican “base” states. The pundits are mystified why there is a desperate effort to find an alternative to Mitt Romney and his failure to “seal the deal.” In rapid turn, Bachman, Perry, Cain, Santorum and Gingrich have all been rocketed to the heights where they burst into glorious color and then flamed out. Santorum and Gingrich have been shot into the air multiple times. Who keeps fueling the rockets trying to keep these two alive?
It is claimed that Romney is not conservative enough. But, consider his positions. He is for lower taxes, smaller government, balanced budget, cutting the outrageous debt, abolishing Obamacare and eliminating oppressive regulations that stifle job growth. He embraces “all the above” energy options to free us from foreign dependence. He is for a strong—no apology—foreign policy that promotes U. S. interests. He is for free and fair trade. He is for a robust military and will reverse Obama’s decimation of the armed forces. He will not reduce our nuclear capability to impotence as Obama has proposed. He is pro-life, defines marriage as between a man and a woman, and has governed so in Massachussets. He defended the Catholic Church on the adoption issue. He has espoused all the Tea Party and conservative issues. How can he be more conservative? So that is not the reason he has not yet secured the nomination.
It is simple. It is also regrettable because, like racism, nobody wants to mention it publicly or be accused of being known for it. As terrible as it sounds, it all boils down to religious bigotry.
Evangelical Pastors in general have always hated the Mormon Religion and they preach against it from the pulpit. In the 1970’s, Walter Martin’s book: “Kingdom of the Cults” listed the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (nicknamed Mormon) as one of them. Ever since that time, Evangelicals have called this religion (the fourth largest in the U. S. with fourteen million members world-wide), a Cult. They repeat the mantra over and over that “Mormons are not Christian.” Recall Southern Baptist Pastor, Robert Jeffress, pastor of the 10,000 member First Baptist Church of Dallas who introduced Governor Rick Perry when he announced his candidacy. Immediately afterwards he called Mormonism a cult and Mormons not Christians.
The following are excerpts from the New York Times article October 7, 2011 entitled “Prominent Pastor Calls Romney’s Church a Cult.” By Richard A. Oppel, Jr. and Erik Eckholm. “He (Jeffress) expressed surprise at the stir his comments created, saying that his view of the Mormon Church is widely held by evangelicals. ‘This isn’t news,’ he said. “This idea that Mormonism is a theological cult is not news either. That has been the historical position of Christianity for a long time.”
“While denying that his comments were coordinated with the Perry campaign, Mr. Jeffress said he emphatically believed that Mr. Romney’s faith would spell trouble for him with many Republican voters and make it hard for him to win Iowa, as well as South Carolina and other Bible Belt states.
“I think it is going to be a major factor among evangelical voters,’ he said. “The thing is, they won’t be honest and tell you that it is going to be a major factor. Most people don’t want to admit—even evangelical Christians—that they have a problem with Mormonism. They think it is bigoted to say so. But what voters say to a pollster sometimes is different that what they do when they go into the privacy of a voting booth.
“He also said that he believed Mr. Romney is a ‘good moral person,’ and that he would endorse him over the president. ‘If it comes to that,’ he said, ‘I’m going to instruct, I’m going to advise people that it is much better to vote for a non-Christian who embraces biblical values than to vote for a professing Christian like Barack Obama who embraces un-biblical values.”
Romney has won the Catholic vote everywhere. They show no bigotry. The pundits have not reported the vote of other religions. It is clear that the fundamental opposition to Romney is that evangelicals want anybody that is not a Mormon. However, if Romney wins the nomination, as Pastor Jeffress said, evangelicals will vote for Romney because they hate Obama more than Mormons and want to see him gone.
As long as Republican candidates work hand-in-hand with the wealthiest people in the country, the country will never thrive again because there will be no future for the average American. Our dreams will be dashed.