Is there a ‘New Newt’ in town?
By David Gergen, CNN Senior Political Analyst
updated 7:40 PM EST, Wed November 23, 2011
(CNN) — In the cold light of morning, Mitt Romney still looks like the man to beat for the Republican presidential nomination, but the buzz Tuesday night in the debate hall and since has mostly centered on Newt Gingrich.
Given up for dead only a few months ago, his campaign seemingly in shambles, Gingrich has tripled his standing in the polls in a little over a month and even leads Romney in some of them. That may say a lot about Romney, but it also shows that Gingrich must now be taken seriously.
The Tuesday debate illustrated the strengths and the dangers that Gingrich brings to the campaign. Romney, who had a little less speaking time than Gingrich, was crisp and once again showed a command of the issues. But as his own team seemed to realize, he didn’t stand out as he often has in the past.
Instead, it was Gingrich who seized the spotlight: He was both more interesting and more of a gambler. Political analysts since the debate have been wondering nonstop how much he may have hurt himself by going “soft” on immigration. Early reports out of Iowa suggest he will pay a price there.
But was it a shrewder move than many analysts assume? For what it’s worth, my own bet is that he will take a temporary hit but in the long term, he may strengthen his prospects.
For one thing, he has shown he is willing to stand up for his convictions (not a bad offset against Romney). Second, he is in effect asking voters to take a second look at him — and betting that they may like the “new Newt” better than the old one. We will see.
For decades, Gingrich has been regarded as one of the smartest, most creative figures in politics. No one else could have engineered the GOP takeover of the House in 1994 in the way he did nor achieved what he did in his early years as speaker. But during that time, he also acquired a reputation as a bomb thrower who could be bombastic, erratic and an intellectual bully. His best friends saw that he had enormous strengths and yet worried about his weaknesses, both professional and personal. Few thought him ready for the White House.
As he re-emerges into the spotlight now, an important question is whether he is the same Newt as before or whether he has changed. Talking with him and then listening to him as he spoke 10 days ago at the Harvard Kennedy School, I sensed that the years may have brought a maturing, a rounding and a steadiness that could serve him well. Certainly, he seems happier and more rooted in his personal life — Callista, his third wife, is constantly by his side and is both partner and confidante.
Whether these are deep, genuine changes is hard to say.
He drew headlines in recent days with his suggestion to weaken child labor laws so students could take the place of school janitors and his reference to the Congressional Budget Office as a “reactionary socialist institution.” It is easy to be cynical. But the Newt of the Tuesday debate surprised a lot of people. He showed a humanity on the immigration issue that might worry the base but also suggests a greater appreciation and empathy for the travails of others. Americans like that in their presidents (see FDR). One wonders whether Gingrich has become wiser and more forgiving after wrestling with his own personal failings and now asking voters for another chance.
The next few weeks will be crucial for the Gingrich campaign. He knows that he will undergo intense vetting from the media and his opponents — he has been smart to go on the offense through the Internet. Voters may well decide he is too much of a risk. But if he survives near the top of the polls, he is the first alternative to Romney who has the chops to win the nomination.
For now, despite the polls, Romney seems a much more likely choice. He has the money, the organization and the personal capacity. A day after the debate, Intrade has been putting Romney’s chances for the nomination at 67% compared with 13% for Gingrich (interestingly, Jon Huntsman is at third). But the Romney forces know they may have a real fight on their hands — especially if voters decide there is a “new Newt” in town.
Read more at: http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/23/opinion/gergen-new-newt/index.html
5 Responses to Is there a ‘New Newt’ in town?
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PRPERSON says:
I have the greatest respect for your work. I wanted to make that clear. But what did not publish clearly is that I too have been a consultant to presidents and candidates for that office. My praise is from a colleague who is not as accomplished as you are but no less respectful because of that.
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Seedy says:
Professor Gergen,
I am a big admirer of you. I followed you a lot over CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 simply because I trust you Know exactly what you are saying, and you do not bury the facts under your opinion. However, I must bring this to your attention: It occured to me you are a big fan of Mitt Romney – I sensed that after hearing you talk about GOP debates on two seperate occassions. I could not believe you said the two best performers in the last debate were Romney and (not sure if you said Bachman). Please take a look at the video again, and you will agree with me Romney performed the least. To me, it was Huntsman and Gingrich. Romney is all about trying to make himself look tough always with any question, even if it means avoiding the question. He is all over everything, for what he said before and sometimes against what he said before. Handling Romney by the Obama team, would be a lot easier than either Perry or Huntsman. Please do not let your opinions over the facts so people like me, who admire your analysis a lot, would still continue to follow you and reference you in our class discussions. Thank you -
Dt says:
I am an admirer of your analysis and commentary but in case I must respectfully disagree. Gingrich is a dangerous speaker. He is not above using the politics of hate and emotional manipulation (he introduced that like no one else in the 90s) when it serves his purposes. In the initial debates he did little more than incite others with he” whoever is nominated must beat Obama” rallying cries.
He has a history of speaking his mind but is often disingenuous along with that as well. Examples such as his “against the herd” immigration talk abound but, as his meet the press slip showed earlier in the campaign he is every bit as political and willing to compromise what he says and does as ever. Perhaps even more so since the stakes are higher.
Gingrich is a seasoned politician and master manipulator. He is a a champion at being devisive and obstructionist when it serves his purposes ( which is the last thing we need in a leader right now -from either side). He’d undoubtably embrace being called a “new kinder gentler Newt” but given his long history of trying on new ideas and faces but ultimately coming back to his own agenda I would be very cautious about attributing his recent performances as anything but capitalizing on the fall of the Cain campaign and seizing the moment..
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We request more and more people will make an email websites like this that are in truth taking read. With the thistledown floating nearly on the net, it’s uncommon to appear over a find like yours instead.
As a consultant to presidents and presidential candidates I want to acknowledge your superlative work. On the new Newt I have to say that I think you have nailed it. He is new and he is smarter than MR et al. I am disturbed by the tribal energy expressed by those who oppose our president. Like our former Governor Mario Cuomo, I believe that we should all support “our president” once he is elected, though not refrain from comments be they negative or positive. The branches of government are no longer functioning, however, mainly the Congress. I don’t understand the hatred towards our president. Who thinks he’s trying to do a bad job? We need to note and vote upon the polls re the Congress and not focus so much on the White House.